If you think you know what's coming, you're wrong.
As we enter month two of our "please give me your Netflix password" period, there is no shortage of people who can tell you what will happen in the future. Whilst there is nothing wrong with listening to educated experts suggesting possible outcomes, declarative economic statements should be eyed with suspicion.
Our reasoning is simple, we just don't have all of the information needed to make any kind of projection of the future in general or Polish property in particular.
As we write, global stock markets are suggesting a quick recovery whilst the bond markets are suggesting a recession. Go figure!. We don't know when this will end, which one would assume is kind of important in making a forecast. Consequently, there will be no definitive statements from our side on Polish property until there is more data.
But there are some things we think may be worth considering.
In a recent article, before Corona kicked off, we wrote about the latest data regarding Rent v. Mortgage Costs by City. In it, we looked at three different sized apartments and the outcome was that, if you were an investor, you bought two smaller apartments rather than one big one as the rental on the larger properties rarely covered the mortgage costs.
We think in the future this will change........dramatically.
Choosing the size of a property to rent or buy is normally decided firstly by affordability and then by requirement. Our requirements have changed and we believe this will be reflected far in to the future.
Regardless of when we are all released back into the world, the idea of remote working will be a reality for many. For those with children, this will always mean an extra room (with a big lock). As working from home becomes more prevalent, we can see increased demand for houses in the suburbs of our cities, with gardens. We can see the design of apartments change fundamentally as "work pods" may be included in addition to standard rooms.
Our online shopping habits have also changed with those previously reluctant participants now all becoming tech whizzes, surfing vast virtual shopping malls with ease. So why have a Galeria? Or let's go further, why have a city centre, as we understand them today?
Part of any economic stimulus introduced in the future to repair damaged economies will include infrastructure development. And our new realities will require new thinking and new planning. New city planning will also affect where new properties appear.
We also believe that Banks will entirely change their valuation models and risk assessments of new mortgages. How that will impact? Well, as we said, we need more data.
So rather than asking if Polish property will fall in value, (it will), or if it will return to pre-corona levels (it will but who knows when), consider the type of property you want to buy.
Consider, after this global shock that we will recover from eventually, what the renter or buyer of tomorrow will be interested in, knowing that they may need a new netflix password at any time.
Stay Safe, Stay In and Stay Thoughtful.
Team BigDoor24.pl - Just Easier
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