According to a recent report from the NBP's Dept. of Economic Analysis the expected 2020 legislation in Germany, allowing work permits for non-EU citizens, may result in a reduction of the number of Ukrainians working and living in Poland by 20 to 25 % from current levels.
The department, as reported in Money.pl , has said that this is the maximum number expected and may well be less. The profile of the Ukrainian in Poland has become more settled in recent years with many bringing their families to Poland and buying property.
The actual number of those to leave will depend greatly on the terms of the eventual German legislation and the state of the German economy in 2020.
At current levels of approximately 2 million Ukrainians working across the different levels of the Polish economy this would mean up to 400,000 to 500,000 less Ukrainians in the Polish workforce. As the economy has experienced a recent slight slowdown, considered by many to be a welcome adjustment, the NBP does not believe it will have a greatly negative effect on workforce pressures.
We do not believe that this will have a major impact on the Polish property market. Rental levels will remain the same we believe in the next 12 months generally and any shortfall in demand will be compensated for by rising wages.
In terms of buyers, demand is continuing to increase year on year and another recent report from the NBP says that bank lending in the Polish mortgage market has also increased, if only at a slightly less dynamic level.
Despite this view we would urge our readers to keep an eye on developments over the next 12 months as many of the NBP estimates come with large caveats and the danger of a global slowdown is being highlighted in international media.